Stock Markets and Cricket Makes All Analysts Look Silly!

Portfolio managers and analysts do not have it easy because we have to justify our decisions whether it is selling an investment that is doing extremely well, not investing in something that is doing well or selling a declining investment that ends up doing well. People will never remember the money that you make or saved but it will be the one instance where you fail that you will be judged on and your recommendations will be questioned. I have developed a thick enough skin to handle any analytical criticism though I have to confess that I still have to develop more resilience when it comes to receiving a critique of my writing which is something that I welcome because that is one of the ways that I can improve as a writer. My career has taught me that the financial market has this beautiful way of either making you look like a brilliant genius or an amateur who does not know which end should be used to hold a bat. I must have a masochistic gene in me because of my decision to apply my skills in investments to cricket where the gods that rule that domain seem to be more perverse in nature.

Everybody following this series including myself had an opinion on what should be done on Day 5. I wrote my point of view after looking at the performance of players in Old Trafford. The general consensus was that England should bat around 6-8 overs so that they would be able to make use of two new balls which is perfectly justifiable. I gave two scenarios of which I preferred the latter based on the limited data that was available. The first was that England should throw the kitchen sink and everything else along with it and bat for three overs while scoring at about 14 an over as this would give both sides a realistic chance of winning the game. The second scenario was that England should get about 70-100 runs at about eight runs an over. England ended up within eight runs of my upper range and at a faster rate than what I anticipated while batting longer than what I believed they should. My analysis showed that it was possible for a team batting second to score at four runs an over while England had to produce something extra special to win this game and still be in the running to win back the trophy. The combination of Stokes using his bat like a bludgeoning club and the bowlers taking wickets at the right time meant that England won the game with an hour to play. WinViz placed the chances of England winning the game at 43% at the start of the West Indies innings which increased to about 75% after the fall of the initial three or four wickets. I expected a draw or a win in the final overs of the day which included the option of taking the extra half an hour. I did expect time-wasting to occur although I was extremely disappointed that it came from Jason Holder himself as he has been a shining beacon for Black Lives Matter during this Test series. There was absolutely no need to use all the reviews or continually bowl wide just within an acceptable Test level limit. I am reasonably satisfied with the way I read the game especially as England won just inside an hour left which is possibly about 45 minutes earlier than what I would have stated But then again I have had the ability to outperform the market on a regular basis.

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